Fundamental News and Triggers

• President Donald Trump’s new tariff threat fueled demand for safe-haven assets, helping gold rise more than 1% to above $3370 (~Rs 96000), its highest level in almost a week.
• Concerns about a possible escalation of the global trade war have increased after President Trump announced his proposal to impose 100% tariffs on foreign-produced films, which has caused investors to turn to gold and other traditional safe-haven assets.
• Investors are currently anticipating the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and the speeches that several Fed officials are scheduled to give this week. Despite tensions over global trade, the strong non-farm payroll data released last Friday showed that U.S. hiring was still strong, indicating that the economy is resilient. Interest Rates are expected not to change at this meeting.
• President Trump is putting increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but his tariff policies run the risk of making inflationary pressures worse, which makes policymaking more difficult.

Technical Triggers

• Gold prices retraced to the $3210 level last week, a 50% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from $2970 (~Rs 86650) to $3510(~Rs 99350). Now prices are expected to consolidate between $3210(~Rs 92000) to $3380(~Rs 96000), either side breakout or breakdown will set a new direction for the prices for the coming days.
• Silver prices are expected to consolidate between $32 (~Rs 93500) and $34(~Rs 98500).

Support and Resistance

 

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