Even if the gold market is now taking a little breath, there is still a lot of fuel remaining in the tank if recent consolidation is any guide. While gold prices have reached all-time highs due to unprecedented speculative bullish bets, holdings in ETFs backed by gold are hovering around multi-year lows and this will keep supporting gold’s long-term upward trend.
Weekly Blogs
Why is gold rising “Hand over Fist”?
The gold price has reached a new high above $2200 (~Rs 66000) due to rising estimates of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June and uncertain global growth prospects. The rally has been very sharp and like “Hand over Fist” which means “quickly or rapidly”.
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Gold breaks the range on the emergence of a new banking crisis
Gold prices closed around $2090, finally breaking out of the $2000 to $2060 range that had held for the past two months. The outbreak of a fresh banking crisis in the United States prompted safe-haven buying in gold.
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Gold and Silver is not out of range yet
While the gold and silver markets ended the week with slight gains, they remain trapped in their weeks-long channel, with resistance above $2060 and $23.5, respectively, holding firm. For the next week, Gold is expected to continue its rangebound momentum from Rs 61000 to Rs 64000, while Silver is expected to trade in a range of Rs 70500 to Rs 73500.
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Gold is an alligator lying in the water
For the past few weeks, Gold has been acting like an alligator lying in the water, waiting for its prey. Gold is trading in a tight range as the Federal Reserve lays the basis for future rate decreases while pushing back on the start of the easing cycle. Markets now expect the Fed to lower interest rates in May.
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Precious metals under pressure as FED rules out rate cut in March
Precious Metals has been going through a tug-of-war for the past few days. On the negative side, there is the FED stance which has turned hawkish over the past two weeks. On the positive side, precious metals are getting safe-heaven bids from emerging geopolitical risks arising from the Middle East and banking stock selloff in the US.
Precious metals are not out of the woods yet
Precious metals are still consolidating and are not out of the woods (out of the bearish zone) yet. Gold has been in a tight range within the Rs 61800 to Rs 62250 region this week, struggling to find enough buyers. After the FED Governor’s hawkish comments last week, markets are pricing lower chances of an FED rate cut in the March FED meeting.
Gold trading cautious as March rate cut expectation drop
Last week was rather quiet in terms of macro data, but central bankers delivered some hawkish signals ahead of the January rate decision. According to the FedWatch Tool provided by CME Group, the probability of the rate cuts decreased from more than 80% last week to a little over 46% this week.
2024 is going to be a year of Gold
After spectacular performance in 2022 and 2023, Gold is again going to shine in 2024. The best way to start or stay invested in gold and silver is through Augmont Digital Gold for better returns. Those who have missed this 2023 rally, can still take advantage as Gold and Silver prices are expected to rise 10% and 20% respectively in 2024.
Augmont Bullion Recommendation & Performance Tracker – July to December 2023
Please find the Performance Tracker of Recommendations given in the last six months of 2023, through Daily Reports and Weekly Blog. All major trends in Gold and Silver prices are captured in these recommendations with more than 90% accuracy. Take benefit of similar recommendations in 2024, keep an eye on the Insight page of Augmont Website.
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RRR (Rates, Recession and Risk) to support Bullion prices in 2024
Gold prices are holding up above the critical resistance of $2000 and Silver above $24 due to a pause in rates, recession fear and geopolitical risk. These three factors or three R will continue to support bullion prices even in 2024.
Global Central Banks at a Crossroads
For the next 15 days, gold prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs 61000 to Rs 63000. Silver prices are expected to trade in a range of Rs 73000 to Rs 76000.
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