Gold and Silver have been the best-performing asset class in 2024, touching record high levels of $2772 (~Rs 78900) and $35 (~Rs 100,000) mark respectively this month.

Gold has been the best-performing asset class in 2024, rising around 30% in international markets and 22% in domestic markets with prices surpassing the $2700/oz (~ Rs 76400) mark. The global central banks’ ongoing gold purchases, the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, the geopolitical unpredictability of the world’s markets, the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the recent monetary stimulus measures taken by the Chinese central banks are all responsible for the strong performance.

Jewellers, Jewellery Associations, Bullion Traders, Bullion Refiners, etc, and most of the Bullion market participants have a lot of expectations from the Budget every year for the development of the Bullion Industry. This article explains the top five expectations from this budget.

From the last Akshaya Tritiya, Gold prices have moved from Rs 60800 to Rs 70700, almost 16% YoY returns. Gold prices have given phenomenal returns in the last 20 years by rising more than 12x from Rs 5800/10 gm to Rs 70700/10 gm with a CAGR average return of more than 12%. What would be next trigger for Gold going forward?

Before the start of 2024, we released a report “Gold and Silver expected to rise 10% and 20% respectively in 2024” wherein a gold target of $2300 (~Rs 70,000) was specified. With economic uncertainty, gold prices have reached that target in three months.

Indian Bullion industry comprises around 6 lakhs jewellers and this thriving industry sustains approximately 4.3 million jobs, contributes about 10% to the country’s merchandise exports, and significantly impacts the overall economic growth. Therefore, Bullion industry participants expect many changes in this interim budget to make this industry more organized and transparent.

2024 promises to be one of the most significant years in economic, political, and financial history. Elections will also be held in Taiwan, India, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States in 2024. Adding gold to your portfolio is one way to do so, as it can help offset some of the risk from other assets. What is the ideal portfolio allocation to gold for higher risk adjusted return?

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Gold has created a triple top resistance around $2080 (~ Rs 63400) in the last three years. In 2023, Gold prices attempted to clear this resistance for a single day, but did not sustain. A lot of positive news, follow-through buying and fear would be required for prices to surpass that level. Once it does, though, the possibilities are that the bull run won’t end until $2300 (~Rs 70000). I remain optimistic in Silver too, predicting a 20% higher target of $30/oz (~Rs 90000) by the end of the year 2024.

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It is considered very auspicious to buy gold during the Dhanteras- Diwali festive season in India. Since Diwali last year, Gold prices have risen over 20% from the level of ₹50000/ 10 gm in the Indian market to almost ₹60000 now. Silver has outperformed gold rising around 25% since last Diwali.

Gold may remain volatile in the immediate term, reacting to inflation, economic indicators, and interest rate trajectory discussions. However, I am bullish on gold for the next 6-12 months. I don’t think, prices will sustain below $1860 (Rs 57000/ 10 gm) and it will rebound soon and head higher towards Rs 60000/10 gm in the next 2-3 months and probably a new high in the first half of the year 2024.

India’s culture is closely linked to gold, which is associated with festivals, customs, and religious beliefs. In India, purchasing gold is not a luxury but rather a necessity. In recent years, numerous changes in consumer behaviour and perceptions of precious metals have occurred.