Gold and silver both posted volatile moves this week amid shifting safe-haven flows and inflation worries. Key U.S. data (jobless claims, PCE inflation) and heightened Middle East tensions drove prices early in the week, but a sharp oil selloff on Wednesday and dip-buying into Friday’s session saw a late rally. Gold finished the week roughly flat-to-down, retracing some of this week’s steep losses, while silver ended slightly higher on the week. The U.S. Dollar stayed firm and Treasury yields ended higher, keeping pressure on the non-yielding metals. On balance, safe-haven demand for bullion was counterbalanced by profit-taking and fading rate-cut expectations. We expect gold to trade broadly in a range next week, driven by Fed and inflation signals and any new Middle East news.

 

Key Economic Data & Dollar/Yields

U.S. economic releases this week were mixed. Wednesday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report (Feb) showed cooling inflation, but did not decisively shift Fed policy odds. Weekly U.S. unemployment claims rose modestly, suggesting a still-stable labor market. Markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates at its Mar 17 meeting and have fully priced out any 2026 rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index was broadly firm this week (despite oil-driven moves) – a stronger greenback made bullion less attractive. U.S. Treasury yields climbed: the 10-year ended near 4.30% (up ~5 bps on week). Rising yields, as noted by TD Securities, “aren’t great for gold” since higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. European yields (e.g. 10-yr Bund) also drifted higher on growth concerns, pressuring gold in euros.

 

Geopolitical Tensions

News flow on the U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict dominated safe-haven demand. Early in the week, hopes rose that peace talks might emerge (Pakistan offered to host talks, US made a 15-point ceasefire proposal on Wed). However, Iran publicly rebuffed the U.S. plan as “one-sided” on Thursday. U.S. and allied military actions continued (U.S. troops to Gulf, strikes far from main zone) and oil supplies remained at risk. Oil prices fell ~3% on Wednesday after reports of a U.S. peace plan, easing some inflation worries, but jumped back above $110/barrel by Friday on renewed conflict fears. The volatility in oil maintained inflation anxiety and undercut the Fed’s willingness to cut rates this year. In short, any sign of de-escalation gave bullion a boost (safe-haven traders bought the dip), while flare-ups kept a floor under prices – though speculative positioning had already driven a massive swing earlier. 

 

Hostilities in the region intensified as Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joined the conflict, targeting Israel over the weekend. The militant group also has the capacity to launch strikes on vessels transiting the Red Sea and key Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the US military is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran after additional troops arrived in the region.

 

Demand Factors & Supply

Central Bank & ETF demand: Gold has seen huge central bank buying in 2025-26 (e.g. emerging markets diversifying), but no major announcements this week. On ETFs, the frenzy appears to have reversed: analysts report record commodity ETF outflows (about $11 bn in March) as the Middle East war rattled markets. U.S. gold ETFs saw some outflows as the week’s sell-off unfolded, partly offsetting earlier massive inflows. (In January alone ETFs took in ~$4.4 bn.) 

 

Turkey’s central bank sold nearly 50 tonnes of gold in a week—the largest drop in reserves since 2018—alongside billions in foreign currency sales to stabilize markets. Russia, facing a massive budget deficit, sold physical gold for the first time since 2002, offloading 14 tonnes over two months. 

For silver, retail mania (U.S. traders buying SLV massively) pushed prices last month, but silver prices have now fallen sharply from their Jan high. Major silver ETF holdings (e.g. iShares Silver Trust) ticked down late week.

 

Industrial & Jewelry: Underlying physical demand remains weaker. The Silver Institute notes industrial and jewelry fabrication are projected to fall in 2026, though investment demand is expected to rise. Record-high prices have already hurt Indian gold/silver buying; jewelry demand is down. Mine supply has been stable to rising, keeping a modest surplus in gold and a structural deficit in silver. Plating and electronics demand for silver is trending lower.

 

Retail (Physical bars/coins): While coin premiums rose sharply in January, demand now seems normalizing. No unusual retail buying news emerged last week. The speculative frenzy has cooled, suggesting next moves will be driven more by macro factors than local retail flows.

 

Market Sentiment & Positioning

Investor sentiment turned cautious mid-week: the CBOE VIX (market fear index) spiked above ~25 on rising Middle East fears, then drifted lower into Friday as risk appetite recovered slightly. Commodity COT (Commitments of Traders) data show large speculator long positions built up earlier (gold net long ~105k contracts, silver ~9.3k). After the recent rout, some forced liquidations occurred. Some speculators are now betting on a “bottom fish” bounce (visible in Friday’s gold rally). Surveyed analysts note that gold’s equity correlation has weakened – it’s now behaving more like an inflation hedge than a quick safe-haven bet. Overall, momentum indicators (RSI/MACD) suggest metals are oversold and technical support around $4,400 gold / $68 silver is triggering rebounds.

 

Outlook – Next Week’s Forecast

Gold $4,300–$4,600; Silver $65–$75: We expect gold to trade sideways-to-up next week, in a range roughly $4,300–$4,600. Silver may see a wider range ($65–$75) reflecting its higher volatility. Near-term price drivers include any fresh Middle East news (ceil or escalation), U.S. inflation data (PCE), and Fed commentary. A weaker USD or renewed hawkish Fed pivot (if inflation ticked up) could push gold back toward $4,700–$4,800, while fresh ceasefire optimism or easing inflation could lift prices.

 

Key Drivers

The Middle East conflict remains the top driver – any sign of de-escalation could spark buying (safe-haven/dip-buying), while new attacks will keep oil/inflation concerns high (pressuring central bank ease). U.S. economic data is also pivotal: notably Wednesday’s PCE (Mar) and Friday’s payrolls (Apr) could shift Fed rate expectations. If inflation stays soft, expectations of eventual rate cuts may revive, benefiting gold. Conversely, surprises on the upside would bolster the dollar/yields, curbing bullion. Industrial demand and mining supply are relatively stable background factors this week.

 

Risk Triggers

Watch for shock rallies/falls in oil prices, sudden FX moves, or a surprise policy statement (e.g. a G7 oil embargo or new sanctions). Geopolitical shocks (new missiles, terror in oil routes) could send gold spiking unexpectedly. On the downside, a clear ceasefire or major news such as an upcoming Fed rate hike signal could drag metals sharply lower in the short term. Finally, any extreme equity rally (risk-on) or banking stress news could temporarily depress or boost gold via liquidity flows.

Price Outlook

Gold

• COMEX Range: $4,350 – $4,600 
• MCX Range: ₹1,39,000 – ₹1,50,000 
• Bias: Sideways to mildly bearish unless US data weakens (triggering Fed easing expectations) 

Silver

• COMEX Range: $66 – $75 
• MCX Range: ₹2,19,000 – ₹2,38,000 
• Bias: High volatility; weaker than gold due to industrial linkage and leveraged positioning.

 

 

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