FED may cut interest rates sooner than expected

Fundamental News and Triggers

  • Gold is still trading between $2300 and $2350 following the Federal Reserve meeting and the US CPI data release. As predicted, the Fed reduced its Dot Plot-based interest rate decrease estimates. The median interest rate projection for this year is 5.1%, up from 4.6% in March.
  • The previous projection of three rate cuts this year has moved to just more than one cut. Following the Fed meeting, the market now expects a 55% likelihood of a rate cut in September, down from 65% following the CPI report, and a 75% chance of a rate cut in December.
  • US headline inflation remained steady month-over-month but increased 3.3% year-over-year. This was less than the 0.1% and 3.4% increases projected by economists, as well as the 0.3% and 3.4% increases seen the previous month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY, falling short of predictions of 0.3% and 3.5%, as well as the previous month’s figures of 0.3% and 3.6%.


Technical Triggers

  • Gold has formed a Head and Shoulder pattern on Daily charts in the last two months with a record high touched above $2450. Neckline support of this H&S formation is $2300. If prices break this level and sustain below it, the next target could be $2150.
  • Silver has formed Double Top formation around $32.5 on daily charts time frame. As prices have closed below the important support of $29.5, the Double top formation target is $28.50 and $26.50.


Support and Resistance



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