By Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont – Gold for all
Gold and Silver prices are continuously rising for the last one month and prices have successfully sustained above major psychological resistance of $2000 (~Rs 60000/10 gm) and $25 (Rs 74000/ kg) respectively. The environment is still bullish and is expected to take prices 20% higher from current levels towards $2400 (~Rs 70000) for Gold and $30 (~Rs 90000) for Silver in FY 2023-24.
Let’s discuss, the top 10 fundamental reasons for bullishness in prices in FY 2023-24:
1. As the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates after 14 years by 500 basis points in the last 12 months, the risk of economic crisis, contraction and recession has risen.
2. US Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI are dropping very fast – below 50 levels. New Manufacturing Orders are reaching dangerously low levels – below 45 level. The recent wave of layoffs is only the beginning.
3. US is adding more and more debt to its balance sheet every year. Current Debt-to-GDP ratio is above 130%.
4. Central banks around the world are moving towards De-dollarization, adding other currencies and gold to their reserves. US Dollar is losing favour as a reserve currency and trading currency.
5. Since 1965, the Leading Economic Index has successfully predicted each of eight recessions, and the current move again points out a recession in the US in 2023.
6. US Dollar Index is continuously weakening due to these weak economic data and recession concerns in the US.
7. US Treasury Bond Yields have fallen 100 bps in the last one month, suggesting that US FED might even cut the interest rates by the 2023-year end.
8. There is strong Central bank demand for gold, as they bought a record high amount of 1136 tonnes of gold in 2022, and they are expected to buy a huge amount in 2023 as well.
9. ETF demand for Gold which was muted in 2022, has been picking up pace, and we are witnessing strong inflows in Gold ETF in 2023.
10. Silver has underperformed Gold in the last 2 years, but now silver demand should benefit from vehicle electrification, the adoption of 5G technologies and the solar energy sector and we are likely to see a supply deficit in 2023.
Over and above strong fundamentals, technical chart indicators are also very powerful, which suggests the rally is not going to die up soon. There could be some corrections and profit-booking in prices, but the overall long-term trend is going to be positive. The maximum downside in Gold prices could be $1800 (Rs 55000) if the macroeconomic situation doesn’t deteriorate too much.
For a recession-proof portfolio, one should allocate at least 20% portfolio to Gold and Silver. And the best way to stay invested in Gold and Silver in a new financial year is to invest 50% in lumpsum at current prices and divide the rest 50% through the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) every month. Augmont- Gold for All offers both of these investment alternatives through its products like Digi Gold/Digi Silver and Gold SIP/ Silver SIP.
Disclaimer: This report contains the opinion of the author, which is not to be construed as investment advice. The author, Directors, and other employees of Augmont Enterprise Private Ltd. and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above. The above-mentioned opinions are based on information, which is believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of the information. The author, directors and other employees and any affiliates of Augmont Enterprise Private Ltd cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Augmont Enterprise Private Ltd. that the reader or client will profit or the losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past results are no indications of future performance. Information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this report is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes and are not to be construed as investment advice.
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