Fundamental News and Triggers

• Despite the absence of the PBoC, global central bank buying continues to support gold prices. Other central banks continued to participate in June, with India’s RBI purchasing more than 9 tons of gold, the National Bank of Poland raising its gold holdings by 4 tons, and the Czech National Bank indicating that its gold reserves increased by around 2 tons. With these central banks continuing to grow Gold positions, it is clear that the official sector is considerably larger than the PBoC.
• During his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Chairman Jerome Powell declined to provide a specific timetable for the Fed’s first interest rate decrease, instead stating that interest rates will be determined based on facts.

 

Technical Triggers

• If gold surpasses last week’s top of $2,393, it will likely reach the next all-time high of $2450. In the short and medium run, the trend has shifted sideways, but Gold is in a long-term uptrend.
• The bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern from April to June has been invalidated by the subsequent rebound. However, there is still a small probability that a more complicated topping pattern emerged instead.

 

Support and Resistance

 

 

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