Gold / Silver futures – weekly outlook: November 21 – 25

Gold prices fell to the lowest level since May on Friday as the dollar rallied to almost 14-year highs amid a rally driven by the U.S. presidential election and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.
Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange hit lows of $1,202.05 a troy ounce and settled down 0.74% at $1,207.9, the lowest close since June 3.
Gold prices were pressured lower as the dollar continued to surge following the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, tracking rising U.S. Treasury yields amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut taxes will spur economic growth and inflation.
Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 101.41 late Friday, its highest close since April 2003.
Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies as the dollar rises.
The dollar rally has also been boosted by bets that the U.S. central bank will almost certainly raise interest rates next month.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday reiterated that a rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.”
Investors have assigned a 95.4% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.
Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery settled down 1.32% at $16.55 a troy ounce, having fallen to its lowest level since June 8 at $16.43 earlier.

Monday, November 21

Canada is to publish data on wholesale sales.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to testify about the bank’s Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.

Tuesday, November 22

New Zealand is to publish data on retail sales.
The UK is to report on public sector borrowing. Canada is to release data on retail sales.
The U.S. is to produce a report on existing home sales.

Wednesday, November 23

Financial markets in Japan will remain closed for a holiday. New Zealand is to report on producer price inflation.
In the UK, Chancellor Philip Hammond will present his autumn budget statement to parliament on Wednesday.
The euro zone is to release survey data on private sector activity. The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, new home sales and a revised report on consumer sentiment.
Later in the day, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its November meeting.

Thursday, November 24

The Ifo Institute is to release data on German business climate. Financial markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 25

Japan is to release data on consumer price inflation. The U.K. is to round up the week with revised data on third quarter growth.


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