By Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head- Research, Augmont – Gold for all
After the Federal Reserve reaffirmed that it is not in a rush to cut interest rates since the U.S. economy is still relatively steady and inflation concerns are still high, gold’s price action last week was comparatively neutral.
In recent weeks, the Greenback has recovered after dropping almost 9% from its March peak and momentarily falling below 98 last month. The US-China trade rhetoric has been cooling, which has been a major factor in the recovery. This weekend’s meeting between US and Chinese officials in Switzerland could have immediate effects.
The United States and China declared “significant progress” following two days of negotiations in Switzerland to defuse a trade war. A trade deal with China was reached after two days of talks in Geneva, according to top Trump administration officials. This might be a huge win for President Donald Trump in his trade war with Beijing. Trump indicated a readiness to reduce U.S. tariffs on China to 80% going into the weekend trade talks, but it was unclear at first if either side would agree to decrease taxes on the other.
Trade discussions with US officials are “an important first step” in stabilising bilateral trade relations, according to China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. The two parties also achieved “substantial progress,” according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, traders will watch the contents of the US-China trade discussions, which the US will provide on Monday.
In April, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold stockpiles by 2 tonnes for the sixth consecutive month, according to the World Gold Council. While the Czech National Bank’s reserves rose by 2.5 tonnes in April, the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) holdings jumped by 12 tonnes to 509 tonnes.
The sellers would be able to regain control, at least temporarily, if tensions were to decrease or some tariffs were to be lowered. Additionally, the fact that gains have now paused twice in the mid-$3400 (~Rs 97000) range suggests that the rally may be nearing its short-term exhaustion. Gold prices may drop to $3200 (~Rs 92000) if they remain below $3365 (~Rs 94000) this week. And we are expected to see a $200 decline from those levels up to $3000 (~Rs 86000) if prices break and hold below $3200, which is the Double Top formation’s neckline support.
Gold Jun Futures Daily Chart
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