Gold surges to a record high as rate cut bets rise

Fundamental News and Triggers
  • Gold hit all-time highs in domestic markets, trading above Rs 101,000/10 gm as traders priced in a 94% likelihood of a rate cut next month after weak employment data that sparked worries about the US economy. After rising on a surprising July Nonfarm Payroll data miss and a string of significant lower revisions to May and June’s readings, gold has held onto gains.
  • Trade uncertainty also increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven, as Trump’s most recent round of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners is scheduled to go into effect on August 7.
  • After Governor Adriana Kugler resigned last Friday, President Donald Trump was able to appoint a successor who might be more in line with his calls for lower interest rates, which further bolstered the precious metal’s appeal.
Technical Triggers
  • Gold has touched its resistance zone of $3440-50 (~Rs 101,350-500), so we might see some profit-booking upto $3390-3400 (~100,000) today. But if prices sustain above this resistance zone, we might see follow-through buying towards the next psychological level of $3500 (~Rs 103,000).
  • Silver is holding up gains after taking support around $36.5 (~Rs 109,000). Upside momentum could continue towards $38(~Rs 113,000) and $38.4(~Rs 114,000), taking clues from gold, profit booking can drag prices to the support zone.
Support and Resistance

 

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