Fundamental News and Triggers
Safe heaven demand eases on positive geopolitical developments
- Gold and silver prices moved lower as investor preference for safe-haven assets eased. In recent sessions, geopolitical tensions have shown signs of stabilising, reducing the urgency for defensive allocations into precious metals. As a result, some investors chose to book profits after the recent rally.
- At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened, emerging as the dominant factor influencing price action. While January’s softer inflation data supported expectations of multiple rate cuts this year, strong nonfarm payroll numbers, steady private hiring, and continued economic growth have reduced the likelihood of an aggressive or immediate easing cycle. This shift in expectations has supported the dollar and created headwinds for gold and silver.
- Geopolitical developments — including renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions and ongoing Russia–Ukraine negotiations — continue to offer underlying support to gold’s safe-haven appeal. However, in the current phase, currency movements have had a stronger impact than geopolitical factors.
- Markets are now awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting for clearer signals on the future interest rate path, which will likely guide the next move in precious metals.
Technical Triggers
- In the short term, gold prices are likely to consolidate within the $4,650–$5,100 range (~ ₹147,000–₹ 160,000). A buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies approach is advisable.
- Silver is also expected to trade weak and consolidate in the $70–$90 range (~ ₹225,000 – ₹285,000). Traders should follow a buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy. A breakdown below $70 may trigger further downside toward $64 (~ ₹200,000).
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