Fundamental News and Triggers

Elevated rate cut expectation boosts precious metal prices.

• Gold and silver rose to over two-week highs, as the dollar declined and the opportunity cost of storing bullion decreased due to predictions of a looser US policy. Three more cuts are expected before the end of 2026, and markets currently price in an 85% chance of a 25-bps cut in December, a significant increase from approximately 30% a week ago.
• When assessing the direction of rates, traders continue to give priority to the wider run of weak demand indicators and dovish Fed commentary because the economic data mix was uneven but still consistent with policy easing. Initial jobless claims were surprisingly lower, and durable goods orders came in stronger despite other readings signaling cooling.
• Reports that Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, is the front-runner to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve raised expectations because investors believe that Hassett will support President Donald Trump’s desire for lower interest rates.

 

Technical Triggers  

• Gold has again attempted to touch $4200 (~Rs 126,000) resistance of its rangebound momentum. Prices would need a solid trigger for prices to climb above $4200, if it does, next resistance would be $4245 (~Rs 127,800). If it doesn’t, then prices can fall back to $4100 (~Rs 123,000).
• Silver has again attempted to touch the resistance zone of $53.5-54 (~Rs 161,000-162,000), if it sustains, we can see rally towards $56 (~Rs 170,000). If it doesn’t sustain and rebounds back, we can see profit-booking towards $50 (~Rs 153,000).

 

 

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