Fundamental News and Triggers

Silver touches new highs on Chinese demand.

• Silver reaches a new all-time high, with increased predictions that the US Federal Reserve would further lower interest rates. Additionally, Chinese inventories have fallen to decade lows, which has led to large exports to London to alleviate supply constraints. The reduction follows a spike in Chinese silver exports in October, which reached a record high of more than 660 tonnes.
• Three more cuts are expected before the end of 2026, and markets currently price in an 85% possibility of a 25-bps cut in December, a significant increase from approximately 30% a week ago. Hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives linked to overnight rates have increased due to conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve over the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts.

Technical Triggers  

• Gold has again attempted to touch $4215-40 (~Rs 126,000-127,000) resistance of its rangebound momentum. Prices would need a solid trigger for prices to climb above $4240. If it does, the next resistance would be the previous record high of $4400 (~Rs 131,500). If it doesn’t, then prices can fall back to $4100 (~Rs 123,000).
• Silver is trading near previous record high resistance of $54-54.5 (~Rs 163,000-164,000). If it sustains, we can see a rally towards $56 (~Rs 170,000). If it doesn’t sustain and rebounds back, we can see profit-booking towards $50 (~Rs 153,000).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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